traffic and revenue studies
Choice Lanes I-24 Economic and Socioeconomic Forecast – Tennessee Department of Transportation (ongoing)
Renaissance is performing an independent economic evaluation and detailed socioeconomic forecast for the Nashville region to support the introduction of Choice Lanes on Interstate 24. As part of a broader Traffic & Revenue project team, Renaissance is integrating macroeconomic conditions, demographic shifts, and anticipated regional developments to offer an updated, comprehensive, and independent socioeconomic for the Nashville region, resulting in independent county-level forecasts and detailed socioeconomic profiles at the traffic analysis zone level.
95 Managed Lanes Socioeconomic Analysis - Florida Department of Transportation Turnpike Enterprise
For the Florida Turnpike Enterprise 95 Managed Lanes project, conducted by the Florida Department of Transportation, Renaissance conducted a detailed socioeconomic analysis to support a traffic and revenue study in Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach Counties. Pivoting from the region’s adopted travel demand model, Renaissance conducted a comprehensive assessment of the macroeconomic environment, demographic trends, land use changes, pipeline development, and third-party forecasts. After developing county-level estimates for 2023 and revised forecasts for 2032 and 2045, a proprietary land use suitability model was utilized to revised zonal-level estimates, reflecting both supply, demand, policy, and capacity constraints.
Dulles Toll Road Independent Economic Analysis – Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority
Renaissance performed an independent economic analysis of residential and commercial growth trends in the primary market area for the Dulles Toll Road as an element of the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority analysis of toll rate increases. The Dulles Toll Road revenue is a funding source for the extension of the Metrorail Silver Line to Dulles Airport. The Renaissance Group analysis developed adjustments to the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments Round 8.0 forecasts of population, housing, and employment in five-year increments through 2050. The analysis was correlated to the recently released 2010 census counts and considered current macroeconomic trends, parcel-level land use data, anticipated planning and zoning changes, and local institutional knowledge. The TAZ-level forecasts incorporated parcel-level analysis of development suitability indicators including property zoning, land use mix, and transit proximity. Renaissance led the TAZ-level forecasting process for the 2012 edition and supervised the development of updates for 2014 and 2016.
I-395 Independent Economic Analysis – Virginia Department of Transportation
Renaissance performed an independent economic analysis of residential and commercial growth trends in the primary market area for the I-95/I-395 HOT lanes as an element of the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority analysis of toll rate increases. The Renaissance analysis developed adjustments to the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments Round 8.4 forecasts of population, housing, and employment in five-year increments through 2040. The TAZ-level forecasts incorporated parcel-level analysis of development suitability indicators including property zoning, land use mix, and transit proximity.
Hampton Roads Independent Economic Analysis – Virginia Department of Transportation
Renaissance performed independent economic analyses of residential and commercial growth trends in the primary market area for the I-64/I-664 HOT lanes projects as an element of the VDOT market grade traffic and revenue study The Renaissance Group analysis developed adjustments to the Hampton Roads Transportation Planning Organization forecasts of population, housing, and employment in five year increments through 2040, with an update two year later considering 2045 and 2060 horizon years, a new regional travel model structure, and impacts of COVID-19. The analysis considered current macroeconomic trends, parcel-level land use data, anticipated planning and zoning changes, and local institutional knowledge. The TAZ-level forecasts incorporated parcel-level analysis of development suitability indicators including property zoning, land use mix, and transit proximity.
Independent Economic Analysis – Transurban
Renaissance performed an independent economic analysis of residential and commercial growth trends in Washington DC region to support internal market research for Transurban, the operator of the I-95/I-395 and I-495 projects in northern Virginia. Renaissance developed adjustments to the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments Round 9.0 forecasts of population, housing, and employment in five year increments through 2045. The analysis considered current macroeconomic trends, parcel-level land use data, anticipated planning and zoning changes, and local institutional knowledge. The TAZ-level forecasts incorporated parcel-level analysis of development suitability indicators including property zoning, land use mix, and transit proximity.
I-270/I-495 Independent Economic Analysis – Maryland Transportation Authority
Renaissance performed an independent economic analysis of residential and commercial growth trends in the primary market area for the I-270 and I-495 HOT lanes projects as an element of the MdTA market grade traffic and revenue study The Renaissance Group analysis developed adjustments to the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments forecasts of population, housing, and employment in five year increments through 2045. The analysis considered current macroeconomic trends, parcel-level land use data, anticipated planning and zoning changes, and local institutional knowledge and included a focus on the effects of the recently announced Amazon HQ2 development in Arlington and Alexandria. The TAZ-level forecasts incorporated parcel-level analysis of development suitability indicators including property zoning, land use mix, and transit proximity.
Independent Economic Analysis – Georgia State Road and Tollway Authority
Renaissance performed an independent economic analysis of residential and commercial growth trends for the Atlanta Regional Council travel demand model jurisdictions to support a variety of traffic and revenue studies. The Renaissance Group analysis developed adjustments to the ARC forecasts of population, housing, and employment. The analyses included review of third-party forecasts, independent cohort component and shift share evaluations, and suballocation at the TAZ level. The effects of COVID-19 were incorporated as an explicit analytic step.
Economic Impact Study – Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority
Renaissance conducted an analysis of the regional impact generated by construction activity on transportation projects underway by the Airports Authority including improvements to the Dulles Access Road and the construction of the Silver Line. The study also assessed the value of these projects in saving travel time and improving regional accessibility.
RELATED SOCIOECONOMIC STUDIES
Southeast Florida 2050 Regional Transportation– Scenario Development & Analysis (Ongoing)
The SEFTC 2050 RTP Scenarios project engages in a forward-thinking planning process designed to assess the long-term impacts of policy and investment decisions on regional mobility, livability, and prosperity. The goal is to develop consensus on transportation investments that complement an overarching regional land use vision, fostering a strategic alignment between future transportation frameworks and land use policies. Renaissance is developing alternative socioeconomic forecasts at the zonal level, providing a clear picture of potential outcomes under various scenarios. These scenarios range from maintaining current trends to implementing significant transit enhancements and regional transit investments, enabling informed decision-making that supports sustainable regional development.
Forecasting the Impact of COVID-19 – Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (MWCOG)
MWCOG sought guidance on the likelihood that the COVID-19 pandemic would have lasting effects on the pace and pattern of growth over the next several decades, particularly in light of shifts to date observed during the pandemic. As a planner, Joel conducted a time-series comparisons of forecasts from national-level sources, and independent analyses to develop a sense of the direction and order of magnitude associated with different exogenous variable affecting the amount and general location of development both within and beyond the region.
Miami-Dade 2050 Socioeconomic Forecast – Miami-Dade TPO
Renaissance is leading the development of the Miami-Dade TPO's 2050 socio-economic and demographic (SED) data to support the TPO's Long Range Transportation Plan. This work builds on Renaissance's previous work developing the TPO's 2045 SED data forecasts. Renaissance used trusted demographic and economic forecasting techniques, like cohort-component and share-based methods, to assess prevailing population and employment trends. These processes were enriched with third-party data to ensure forecasts accounted for recent disruptive trends in the area, including the impact of COVID-19, increased telecommuting, and shifting patterns in retail. Data on recently delivered developments, newly permitted developments, and changing land use policies were leveraged to guide new households and jobs by type to specific micro analysis zones (MAZs) across the county.
2045 Long Range Transportation Plan Socioeconomic Data Forecasting – Miami – Dade Transportation Planning Organization (TPO)
Renaissance is preparing a socioeconomic forecast for Miami-Dade County, Florida. The project includes a detailed analysis of best practices for county and sub-county allocation methodologies, countywide population and employment forecasts, and socioeconomic sub-allocation to the TAZ and MAZ levels for the year 2045.
US 421 Capacity Analysis and Development Forecast – New Hanover County, North Carolina
Renaissance conducted an analysis of land availability, capacity and development potential in the US 421 corridor in New Hanover County. The work emphasized industrial development and included an assessment of capacity and attractiveness in neighboring areas of Pender and Brunswick Counties. Renaissance prepared a development forecast for the properties along 421.
2035 Long Range Transportation Plan Update – Sarasota/Manatee County Metropolitan Planning Organization
Renaissance led the 2035 LRTP update for the Sarasota/Manatee MPO, focusing on integrated transportation and land use strategies to help the MPO meet its numerous transportation needs within projected financial resources.
Hillsborough County Corridor Preservation Plan: Land Use Scenarios – Hillsborough County, FL
Renaissance is responsible for developing, evaluating, and presenting a countywide land use scenario for the forecast year of 2070. The scenario goal is to minimize increases in VMT by reducing trip lengths and promoting multimodal travel while ensuring long-term resiliency. Renaissance is using our CorPlan model to develop an integrated land use and transportation scenario for the corridor study. The project focuses on data collection, development of scenario stories and schem
Long Range Plan Update – Orlando Metropolitan Planning Organization
This was a major multi-modal update of the Orlando Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPO’s) long-range plan. The update involved an extensive public involvement program, including preparation of newsletters, surveys, public workshops, meetings, and public hearings; detailed financial analysis of costs and potential revenues; the use of DRAM/EMPAL land use allocation models; and developing the MPO’s first freight and goods movement action plan. Much of the alternatives analysis was conducted using GIS, with the coverages and databases becoming the basis for the MPO’s GIS system. A congestion management system (CMS) was also developed for the MPO as part of the update. Chris directed this project.